The entry-level job market is facing a permanent structural reset, making it much harder for recent graduates to land their first white-collar job.
Gad Levanon, Chief Economist at The Burning Glass Institute, identifies the twin engines driving this shift: the rapid advance of AI and a long-term oversupply of college graduates.
Levanon predicts this could erase the first rungs of the career ladder, forcing employers to hire candidates with advanced degrees who may lack crucial workplace skills.
He advises graduates to be strategic, targeting emerging roles in AI regulation, infrastructure, and other future-proof sectors.
The anxiety among recent graduates is palpable. Landing a first “real” job has always been a rite of passage, but today’s entry-level market feels less like a challenge and more like a locked door. The Burning Glass Institute’s “No Country for Young Grads” report suggests that this isn’t a temporary setback tied to a cyclical economic dip, but rather a long-term, structural reset of the labor market. The forces driving this change are fundamental and lasting, set to alter the first rungs of the career ladder for decades to come.
We spoke with Gad Levanon, Chief Economist at The Burning Glass Institute—a research firm focused on the future of work and learning—to understand the new landscape. With a Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University and past experience heading The Conference Board’s Labor Market Institute, Levanon brings decades of analysis to bear on the problem. As a co-author of the aforementioned report, he argued that the disappearance of early-career roles carries consequences far beyond the graduating class, with ripple effects for workforce development and long-term growth.
“This has happened before, just not to college graduates. In the Midwest and parts of the South, manufacturing declines left a lasting scar that continues today. I don’t think it will be as severe this time, because the impact will be spread more broadly rather than concentrated in specific regions. But I do expect a prolonged period of weakness in the market for office and white-collar jobs.”
The structural reset, according to Levanon, is being driven by two powerful engines working in tandem: the rapid advance of artificial intelligence and a long-term oversupply of college graduates. As AI’s capabilities directly overlap with the tasks historically assigned to junior workers, and the supply of degree-holders continues to outpace demand, the entry-level tier of many professions is being hollowed out.
The twin engines: “Employers expect many jobs will soon be automated by AI, so they don’t see any reason to invest in hiring and onboarding a new grad today. The second catalyst is on the supply side: the increase in young workers holding a college degree is growing faster than the demand for jobs that require one,” explained Levanon. “AI is especially impacting young workers because they have less experience. What they bring to the table is primarily the skills that AI can also perform.”
One of the most profound consequences of this shift is the erasure of the early rungs on the career ladder, threatening the pipeline of experienced talent five to ten years down the line. Levanon predicted the market would adapt not by recreating those roles, but by raising the barrier to entry entirely. He outlined the problem by pointing to his own field.
The broken ladder: “How will we get economists if we’re no longer hiring research assistants? Right now, there are two ways to become an economist: to start as a research assistant and move up, or to go to grad school and enter the workforce as an economist immediately. We’ll likely see more people getting graduate degrees rather than entering the workforce as junior employees.”
This solution, however, creates a new problem. Even if employers pivot to hiring candidates with advanced degrees, these new hires will lack the crucial soft skills and professional etiquette traditionally learned in those now-vanished entry-level jobs. Levanon predicted this could force a fundamental change in hiring processes and role requirements. “Organizations will have to prepare for senior workers to acquire that know-how instead of junior ones. And for roles that are client-facing immediately, that soft skills readiness will become a part of the job requirement.”
Compounding these structural forces is a psychological scar left on employers by the “Great Resignation,” an era of historically high quit rates that had roots stretching back long before the pandemic. The experience has made many companies hesitant to invest in training inexperienced workers who might quickly depart. Levanon acknowledged this factor but framed it as an accelerant, not the root cause.
An overreaction: “Some employers may have thought, ‘Why hire inexperienced people, train them, and then watch them leave?’ This could be an overreaction stemming from the Great Resignation, but the deeper forces shaping today’s market are long-term structural ones,” he said. This framing casts employer hesitation less as the root cause and more as an accelerant of a trend already underway.
For young people, the path forward requires a deliberate and strategic shift in thinking. Rather than despair, Levanon advised a proactive approach focused on anticipating where future demand will be strongest. He pointed to a constellation of new roles emerging directly from, and in support of, the AI revolution itself.
“It’s important to think carefully about which types of jobs are likely to stay in demand. Some will be directly tied to AI itself—regulation, monitoring, safety, and ethics. Because much of AI’s upside flows to the top percentiles of the population, services catering to the wealthy will also see growth. And there will be expanding demand for roles in AI infrastructure, from implementation to maintenance and repair. The key is to look ahead and steer your career toward those areas.”
The entry-level job market is facing a permanent structural reset, making it much harder for recent graduates to land their first white-collar job.
Gad Levanon, Chief Economist at The Burning Glass Institute, identifies the twin engines driving this shift: the rapid advance of AI and a long-term oversupply of college graduates.
Levanon predicts this could erase the first rungs of the career ladder, forcing employers to hire candidates with advanced degrees who may lack crucial workplace skills.
He advises graduates to be strategic, targeting emerging roles in AI regulation, infrastructure, and other future-proof sectors.
The Burning Glass Institute
The anxiety among recent graduates is palpable. Landing a first “real” job has always been a rite of passage, but today’s entry-level market feels less like a challenge and more like a locked door. The Burning Glass Institute’s “No Country for Young Grads” report suggests that this isn’t a temporary setback tied to a cyclical economic dip, but rather a long-term, structural reset of the labor market. The forces driving this change are fundamental and lasting, set to alter the first rungs of the career ladder for decades to come.
We spoke with Gad Levanon, Chief Economist at The Burning Glass Institute—a research firm focused on the future of work and learning—to understand the new landscape. With a Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University and past experience heading The Conference Board’s Labor Market Institute, Levanon brings decades of analysis to bear on the problem. As a co-author of the aforementioned report, he argued that the disappearance of early-career roles carries consequences far beyond the graduating class, with ripple effects for workforce development and long-term growth.
“This has happened before, just not to college graduates. In the Midwest and parts of the South, manufacturing declines left a lasting scar that continues today. I don’t think it will be as severe this time, because the impact will be spread more broadly rather than concentrated in specific regions. But I do expect a prolonged period of weakness in the market for office and white-collar jobs.”
The structural reset, according to Levanon, is being driven by two powerful engines working in tandem: the rapid advance of artificial intelligence and a long-term oversupply of college graduates. As AI’s capabilities directly overlap with the tasks historically assigned to junior workers, and the supply of degree-holders continues to outpace demand, the entry-level tier of many professions is being hollowed out.
The twin engines: “Employers expect many jobs will soon be automated by AI, so they don’t see any reason to invest in hiring and onboarding a new grad today. The second catalyst is on the supply side: the increase in young workers holding a college degree is growing faster than the demand for jobs that require one,” explained Levanon. “AI is especially impacting young workers because they have less experience. What they bring to the table is primarily the skills that AI can also perform.”
One of the most profound consequences of this shift is the erasure of the early rungs on the career ladder, threatening the pipeline of experienced talent five to ten years down the line. Levanon predicted the market would adapt not by recreating those roles, but by raising the barrier to entry entirely. He outlined the problem by pointing to his own field.
The broken ladder: “How will we get economists if we’re no longer hiring research assistants? Right now, there are two ways to become an economist: to start as a research assistant and move up, or to go to grad school and enter the workforce as an economist immediately. We’ll likely see more people getting graduate degrees rather than entering the workforce as junior employees.”
The Burning Glass Institute
This solution, however, creates a new problem. Even if employers pivot to hiring candidates with advanced degrees, these new hires will lack the crucial soft skills and professional etiquette traditionally learned in those now-vanished entry-level jobs. Levanon predicted this could force a fundamental change in hiring processes and role requirements. “Organizations will have to prepare for senior workers to acquire that know-how instead of junior ones. And for roles that are client-facing immediately, that soft skills readiness will become a part of the job requirement.”
Compounding these structural forces is a psychological scar left on employers by the “Great Resignation,” an era of historically high quit rates that had roots stretching back long before the pandemic. The experience has made many companies hesitant to invest in training inexperienced workers who might quickly depart. Levanon acknowledged this factor but framed it as an accelerant, not the root cause.
An overreaction: “Some employers may have thought, ‘Why hire inexperienced people, train them, and then watch them leave?’ This could be an overreaction stemming from the Great Resignation, but the deeper forces shaping today’s market are long-term structural ones,” he said. This framing casts employer hesitation less as the root cause and more as an accelerant of a trend already underway.
For young people, the path forward requires a deliberate and strategic shift in thinking. Rather than despair, Levanon advised a proactive approach focused on anticipating where future demand will be strongest. He pointed to a constellation of new roles emerging directly from, and in support of, the AI revolution itself.
“It’s important to think carefully about which types of jobs are likely to stay in demand. Some will be directly tied to AI itself—regulation, monitoring, safety, and ethics. Because much of AI’s upside flows to the top percentiles of the population, services catering to the wealthy will also see growth. And there will be expanding demand for roles in AI infrastructure, from implementation to maintenance and repair. The key is to look ahead and steer your career toward those areas.”
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